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View Full Version : Recession?????



Angelis
18-11-2005, 02:38 PM
I was talking to a friend who has a newsagent. According to him, it's currently the worse period of trading he's had in 18 years. he believes we are in a recession.

GrahamS
18-11-2005, 02:42 PM
What's a recession officially? Isn't it something like 3 successive quarters without economic growth.

KenC
18-11-2005, 02:42 PM
I was talking to a friend who has a newsagent. According to him, it's currently the worse period of trading he's had in 18 years. he believes we are in a recession.

The FTSE100 is back over 5,500. Recession can't be doing too much harrm for the big businesses.

Hud
18-11-2005, 02:43 PM
my own view is that people have taken their equity out of their houses, loaned themselves up and are now starting to realise their debt. we live in a must have society and the younger generation live for the moment.

Angelis
18-11-2005, 02:47 PM
my own view is that people have taken their equity out of their houses, loaned themselves up and are now starting to realise their debt. we live in a must have society and the younger generation live for the moment.

I have to agree.

There's too much debt out there and it'll bite back...hard.

Ade
18-11-2005, 03:17 PM
5)a period of calm stagnation. A country on heavy duty tranquilizers

jtremlett
18-11-2005, 03:19 PM
The FTSE100 is back over 5,500. Recession can't be doing too much harrm for the big businesses.The FTSE has been down over the last few years, though, while things have been good. Bear in mind that share prices are largely based on the sentiments of a load of sharp-suited in-bred Porsche-driving cretins who work in stock brokers, only got the job because daddy pulled a few strings, and wouldn't know a decent business if slapped them in the face with a wet halibut.

Jonathan

Ade
18-11-2005, 03:19 PM
I have to agree.

There's too much debt out there and it'll bite back...hard.

It might not be too much of a problem right now with low interest rates and if interest rates go up slowly (when they do) then the fallout will be spread over a long time and wont cause to much of a panic.

spidermanUK
18-11-2005, 03:27 PM
Retail is in BIG TROUBLE! We've had letters from a number of major high st operators stating that they will not be paying on time due to "difficult trading conditions"!:cry3: :cry3: :cry3:

GrahamS
18-11-2005, 03:30 PM
The FTSE has been down over the last few years, though, while things have been good. Bear in mind that share prices are largely based on the sentiments of a load of sharp-suited in-bred Porsche-driving cretins who work in stock brokers, only got the job because daddy pulled a few strings, and wouldn't know a decent business if slapped them in the face with a wet halibut.

Jonathan
The smart money is investing in pork bellies, I thought everybody knew that :laugh: You'll never get anywhere investing in halibut

Yorkshirelad
18-11-2005, 04:02 PM
I've just shut one of my businesss down, not many retail shops are buying shop fittings at the moment...but the government is spending more money than its got, just look at the balance of payments !!

Jas
18-11-2005, 04:08 PM
I'd say we're in a mild recession.

Yorkshirelad
18-11-2005, 04:11 PM
Not sure how its going to go, but on the otherhand My engineering business is booming due to oil prices!!:D:D:D

tonyh
18-11-2005, 04:12 PM
The FTSE has been down over the last few years, though, while things have been good. Bear in mind that share prices are largely based on the sentiments of a load of sharp-suited in-bred Porsche-driving cretins who work in stock brokers, only got the job because daddy pulled a few strings, and wouldn't know a decent business if slapped them in the face with a wet halibut.

Jonathan

Have me met ??? :tongue3: :tongue3: :tongue3:

355fiorano
18-11-2005, 04:20 PM
Have me met ??? :tongue3: :tongue3: :tongue3:


Who's ya Daddy? :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Ravi 355
18-11-2005, 04:48 PM
Interesting spread of comments. I own a recruitment business providing IT, white collar construction and Pharmaceutical staff. The market from our perspective is booming. Its always the case if companies are facing difficulties they stop hiring and start making reduandancies. Admittedly we don't deal with retail sector, but it would appear that we are in a period of sustainable growth.

trax
18-11-2005, 04:56 PM
3 year waiting list for a 430
2 year waiting list for a G Spyder
3 year waiting list for a AMV8

don't see much of a recession there

Ravi 355
18-11-2005, 05:00 PM
3 year waiting list for a 430
2 year waiting list for a G Spyder
3 year waiting list for a AMV8

don't see much of a recession there

Trax, whilst that's true, I'd bet good money that most of those orders are from speculators who may end up getting burned

Steve
18-11-2005, 06:22 PM
The FTSE has been down over the last few years, though, while things have been good. Bear in mind that share prices are largely based on the sentiments of a load of sharp-suited in-bred Porsche-driving cretins who work in stock brokers, only got the job because daddy pulled a few strings, and wouldn't know a decent business if slapped them in the face with a wet halibut.

Jonathan


Who are you accusing of driving a Porsche?

And it's not so much the stockbrokers, as the fund managers, hedge fund managers, pension fund trustees and end retail investors who are responsible for the level of markets.

And FYI interest rates in the UK are coming down not up. Reason why sterling is currently weak. Longer term though you've got to watch out for Gordon Brown because this guy has been raising taxes and spending it like the young folk.

456gtman
18-11-2005, 06:36 PM
I can appreciate that a lot of major high street retailers are in trouble, and in general, most high streets are now a mix of pound shops (3 months and they're off),"dixie chicken" or other such crap fast food outlets or empty. IMHO this is due to narrow minded councils inflicting massive business rates for no services supplied on generally run down properties. More modern buildings owned and operated by the Cartels (of which the Church is a major player) charge astronomic rentals per square foot, which drives the small independants out of business very quickly when cash flow slows down due to poor trading returns.
However, on a brighter note:wink3:, I am happy to say that my own business, which concentrates on Heavy Industrial controls and electrical engineering, has never been so busy. We have taken on 3 more engineers in the last 4 months and are still recruiting. I am in the unenviable position of having to turn away enquiries as we cannot meet demand, due to severe skilled labour shortages in the UK market.
So its not all bad news out there.
I can't vote on this poll because i don't personally agree with any of the views listed.

Angelis
18-11-2005, 06:42 PM
I can't vote on this poll because i don't personally agree with any of the views listed.

Tell me what it is and i'll add it. :smile:

456gtman
18-11-2005, 06:45 PM
Tell me what it is and i'll add it. :smile:
Just retailers in the s**t:shocked:

Angelis
18-11-2005, 07:24 PM
Just retailers in the s**t:shocked:

Done

jimmy b
18-11-2005, 08:09 PM
Exactly right. The sector contrast is significant. Brent crude and WTI have shot up to an all-time high this year, trashing the manufacturing and transport sectors who rely on oil for the majority of their energy needs, but lifting the oil sector with record profits at the same time. Very confusing for the FTSE. Retail sector down as consumer spending down, and the housing market is more stagnant (naff-all sellers towards the top, allowing upgrades to filter down the price-range) than individual houses actually falling in value.
This explains both the MPC and Gordon Brown's "Vicky Pollard" stance on whether interest rates and fiscal tightening (respectively) should increase.... "yeah, but no, but yeah, but no, but yeah, but no, but yeah, but no, but..."

So the fact is no, we're not having a technical recession (broadly negative GDP) overall, but some sectors are contracting and everyone is really guessing what happens next - although markets have priced in UK interest rate drop.

Soon it will be December, when most folks concentrate on having fun with friends instead of work and money pressures.....
....and now it's Friday night so I'm going to concentrate on my rioja and jalfrezi diet this evening!

J.


P.S. You can add an option for "Vicky Pollard / NOFK" (no one **ing knows).